Hand Answer #1
Thanks Bam-Bam for taking the time to comment ! Proving that this blog has even fewer readers than I thought, or that this hand isn't interesting at all !
I did post it on RTR & 2+2 to see what other thoughts I might pick up from various people. It's a bit of a mixed bag tbh. Everyone agrees I should not get into this short stack situation in the first place, pushing either UTG or UTG+1, but I did that with AQ and lost to a shorter stack which is my excuse for being here now. So now that I'm here what's the best thing to do ?
I am getting 4.72-1 pot odds so I need a 17.5% or better expectation vs his range to make the call good on its own.
On the next hand I'll be getting 2-1 if it's just me vs the BB but I will win half as many chips, and need 3 players to bust out yet. And what are the chances it'll be just me vs the BB ?
Even if I was to win the SB hand I would still have an M of less than 1 and will likely need to win at least one more hand to get a seat. If I win the 2-7 hand here then I have a reasonable chance of just folding to a seat because I'll be up near an average stack.
Hand ranges -
I think that a fairly conservative range for gerens is [88+,AQs+,AQo+] which would make this a +EV call of with me having a 20% chance vs that range.
If I make it just a little tighter, by removing the AQ hands [88+, AKs, AKo] then it becomes a marginally -EV call, with me only having a 17% chance against the range.
Most people on the forum replies I got suggest that range is probably too tight, and I should expand it to include [88+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo] that seems a little wishful thinking if you ask me, but on this range 7-2 has a 23% chance, making it another +EV call.
So all that leads me to believe calling is the right move, even though I am cursing my luck to get such a crappy hand on my BB.
I did wonder if the expected value of prizes can effect this and my simple brain has come to the following conclusion (which I don't know if the logic for which is correct)
If I make two assumptions,
That calling winning the BB hand will get me a ticket
Folding means needing to win 2 hands to get a ticket
Can that change the EV discussed above ?
If I'm 20% to win the BB hand then my cashEV is 215*.20 right ? = $43
So how do I work out the cEV for folding and going allin on the SB and button ?
The best case scenario for the SB+button move is that it will be my hand random vs BB's random hand only on both occassions, which is a 50/50 followed by another 50/50. That's .5 * .5 = 25% and 25% of 215 = $53.75 but that is a best case scenario. It is much more likely that I'll be a dog running against another player other than the BB. If I'd actually end up a 60/40 dog in these allins my expectation is 16%, much worse off.
Conclusion. Even though we're in the crap and sacrificing a goat to try and get lucky it still looks to me like calling with 2-7 in the BB is a better proposition than folding and hoping to win the next 2 hands. But we should never normally get this short in the BB we should be allin UTG before the blind comes through.
The forum discussion went through the hand range above and came to the conclusion it's a +EV call, but still the majority of people decided they would rather fold and hope the SB is luckier. I don't really understand that. As a big stack in a tournament I can see why you would pass up small +EV edges but when it is crunch time like this I think you have to go with any edge no matter how small.
If you see any glaring errors in this thought process please feel free to let me know ! I'm here to learn.
Here's the rest of the hand
TanOrpheus: calls 6280 and is all-in
*** FLOP *** [5d Ks 6d]
*** TURN *** [5d Ks 6d] [4s]
*** RIVER *** [5d Ks 6d 4s] [7h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
TanOrpheus: shows [2d 7s] (a pair of Sevens) 11.8 %
gerens: shows [Ad Ac] (a pair of Aces) 88.2 %
gerens collected 47960 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 47960 | Rake 0
Board [5d Ks 6d 4s 7h]
Seat 1: Klaversma folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: kooshla (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: first-dane (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: TanOrpheus (big blind) showed [2d 7s] and lost with a pair of Sevens
Seat 5: Ditalino folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: rojotoronja folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: gerens showed [Ad Ac] and won (47960) with a pair of Aces
Seat 8: leffan69 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Nase66 folded before Flop (didn't bet)