I've played hardly any poker since Sunday. It's mostly down to feeling exhausted when I got home from work each day and partly down to having two wins last weekend (the RTR league game on Friday and Brit Blogger game on Sunday) My poker mindset is usually on tilt after winning an MTT and although these are basically two-table SNG's and not huge fields I still felt if I played I wasn't going to take losing very well. Getting busted at some point is the natural expectation in an MTT and in order to play effectively I accept that outcome before I signup.
Friday night I went out on a first company-wide do in years, free bar at one of the local establishments. A year ago I hardly ever drank, then I moved into town and went through a phase of going out every Friday and Saturday. The last month it's been occassional and sporadic, so Friday's consumption was over the usual threshold. I do remember being on good form for a while but don't remember leaving, walking home, stopping at the take-away, feeding the cats or going to sleep. It's usually around the 6 pint + 3 shots + fresh air mark that my memory goes and I guess we didn't have that many drinks more because my hangover was only a dull thud and not the misery it could have been if I'd gone on a full tilt bender of a night. Having sensible friends like ActionRich and TensionGirl around when you're approaching the point of no return is definitely +EV.
I'm still sorting out the video clips from last weekends Brit Blogger too, so the highlights will be up soon, but I'm slack so it's taking time. Kaja stopped by and said he can't see the flash files on previous posts, if anyone knows anything about how to cure this I'd be grateful for a comment. I suspect it is something to do with certain AV software treating *.swf files as if they may be a threat. But that's only from google searching and there's a ton of stuff out there. It could be something completely different.
It was a happy easter. I played in the RTR league game 2 and won it (though half the players were sitting out so it was a bit easier than usual) I also played a couple of $4 180's and shored up my bankroll a little. Saturday night my friends came round and cooked Fajitas which we ate while watching Run Fat Boy Run. Dinner and Movie were both excellent. My performance in Saturdays with Dr Pauly was less excellent and I crashed out early doors.
On Easter Sunday I picked my brother up and we went for lunch with my sister and her family and Mum & Dad to celebrate their 45th wedding anniversary. A great time was had by all.
Finally on Sunday night I played the brit bloggerment and completed the weekend double by winning that too. I've got the final table of that game recorded and when I finally finish reviewing it I'll post the highlights up here (that's looking like another long post)
Yesterday I played nothing, it was a day of rest and no stress.
You are well within your rights to insult me when I bust from a game that you are still in, if thats how you want to be. But just for the record I didn't CALL most of my chips off with the second nut low I bluffed most of my chips off with second nut low and a busted nut flush draw. I'm still a donk, I'm just not a calling donk. Get your facts right next time you insult me.
Easter rocks 'cause Jesus died for our sins and rose again, and we get 4 days to gamble and repent. The beauty of this for us Limeys is it creates a chance to play in a BBT event and a Sunday million without having to take holiday from work or create jet-lag without even leaving the house.
Yeah I know you're dead money at 1am, but if you have your horseshoe working properly you could win a TOC seat and a chance to go to the WSOP. Surely that tempts you a little ? Not to mention the fact all bloggers are super polite and never moan about bad beats and suckouts, it's the friendliest poker game on the internet*.
Hope to see some of you folks still awake and boosting the prize pool a little for me anyway.
My mission to navigate the minefield of the $3 rebuy ended with yet another ITM finish but only for a breakeven amount at 165th/2980 or something. I did learn something new though. Whilst getting 12k+ chips in the first hour is ideal to give you a shot at going deep, if you get stuck at the tightest table in the tournament for the first hour it is still possible to go the long haul with only 4k chips at the break. This is because players with pictures of themselves in cowboy hats are idiots and will call an allin with 88 on a Q76 board when you hold KK. Good times :)
See you tonight !
* statements made on this blog maybe further from the truth than they appear.
Here's some example hands from yet another attempt at the $3 rebuy last night.
*** flash videos here, you'll have to click through from your feedreader if you want to see them ***
Connecting with the flop
In this first hand I'm in the big blind with 5d 6d and kernark raises 4x from middle position. I have a read on kernark, he only raises 4x with broadway hands and he overplays his hands post-flop. I know my call out of position is -EV in a standard situation, but against this guy I've got a good chance of reading his hand and winning some chips, and if I connect with the flop I could win even more.
So I kind of connected with the flop, my hand isn't great but if my read is right that he's got broadway that means he hasn't hit unless he already had an overpair. I check to keep the pot small and see what more information he wants to give me. His bet of 1200 into the 1700 pot is a standard c-bet. I'm not too scared of another club hitting, but if one comes I'll reassess the betting on the turn. The 6h on the turn is a perfect card for me, it hasn't helped him and it's made my hand much stronger. I make a weak half-pot bet which I think looks like I'm semi-bluffing the flush draw, and he's not going to put me on 89 for a made gutshot straight. He reraises allin with AK and I win a nice pot.
The turn card does make my hand much easier to play, but if I'm following my reads I should be able to make the same commitment without needing to pair the 6.
This second hand happened in the 3rd hour of the tournament I think, I'm at a different table but I've seen a lot happen and I've got reasonable reads on most of the opposition. I'm dealt Kh 10h UTG+1, this is generally a standard fold but because we've got deep stacks and good reads it's an opportunity to raise. If I end up in a hand against a player I have a strong read on my hole cards won't matter.
I get super lucky and flop the second nut flush, but eunpark is a worry, he's loved getting his chips in the middle so far. I make a weak flop bet just to see how he reacts. Min-reraise. I've seen this so often lately it's ridiculous, players min betting or min reraising their flush draws, maybe he's got the nut flush though, so I small reraise again thinking he'll push if he has it. He just calls. The turn is a non heart 8 so I bet half the pot without really thinking about my bet at all (the mistake here is Ive stopped thinking about his cards all together all I'm thinking is "I have the flush ! I have the flush !" - idiot). He calls trying to hit one of the 7 remaining hearts in the deck but the river is a non-heart 5. Now I make another mistake, I completely forget that he missed his outs and don’t think to myself "is he calling my bet". In hindsight a much better play on the river is to check, allowing him a chance to bluff at the nice juicy pot we've built. Instead I shove and he folds.
AK "lucky ?" read
2 hands here, I've only seen popo play one hand against a short stack which sucked out on him. He took it very well so I made an initial assessment in the notes that he was good and non-tilty. Then I see him limp AJo UTG and call a shove with it, so I lose any respect for him. The very next hand I get Ad Kd and make a fairly standard raise. He calls preflop and the flop comes JJ4 with two diamonds. To my surprise he shoves his 19k stack into a 4k pot. Very occasionally this a guy pretending he's on tilt when he's actually got the jack. Very rarely. More often it's genuine tilt. I take a little time, and call thinking at least if it isn't the bluff-on-tilt I think it is I have 2 overs and outs to the flush.
AA gets cream crackered
With two allins before me I'm already saying to myself "I've got a bad feeling about this one" obv I have to make the call but QQ flops a set to double up. Thanks to the earlier chips I picked up I can take the beat and keep going, without tilting.
Confirmation of an easy read Now that sccby has a nice big stack of chips in front of him my attention turns to confirming my read on him. In this hand he reraises PF from the BB and bets out on the flop. It's obvious he had good starting cards and when my read said he only bet out on flops when he was ahead it was obvious he was stacking zandroc.
TT played poorly
I think I played this hand badly on the flop, turn and river.
I reraise a limper with TT preflop which is fine. Then on a 9 high two heart flop its checked to me and I only bet half the pot, it should be more. He calls. An A comes on the turn and I fire another bullet but it's still only a half pot bet which doesn’t tell me a lot when its called. On the river if he had shoved I'd have been priced in to calling so why shouldn't I put him allin anyway. I think I should have even though I was smelling a rat and thought at the time he had a really strong hand.
A chance to exploit the read
Sccby makes his standard raise UTG. I have 4h 6h. Fold ? No way. With his telegraphed post-flop play this is an easy hand to play. I call and he checks the K high flop. It doesn’t matter that I made bottom pair, I know he missed so betting just over half the pot makes the chips mine.
Failure to use the read and marginal play
I raise 2.5xBB with 33 from MP1, probably a mistake but I have reads on nearly everyone at the table now and think I can get away easily or make moves post flop enough to get away with it. I was probably getting a bit overconfident at this point. Sccby calls my raise in the SB. Perfect, at least I'll know whether he hit the flop. Qd Jd 3c gives me a set and he checks to me. Now I should be using my read to try and get something out of him but I don’t think and bet to stop the draw, knowing full well he's folding anyway.
Ignoring the read completely
Sccby makes his standard raise UTG+1 again, this time I have A8o. Normally an easy fold but again I'm thinking with the read it's easy for me to play and know where I am on the flop. The flop is Kd 7h Ah. But then Sccby bets out first ! Alarm bells should be ringing, I should be looking at the notes again, I should KNOW he has me beat. Instead I fall in love with my paired Ace crappy kicker and fairly quickly shove my chips in the middle. Of course he calls with A-10 and my tournament is over.
I shake my head in disbelief that I didn't even think about the reads before and that he TOLD me I was beat on that flop. A totally stupid move, not because of the cards I had but because of my read.
Reviewing those hands was really good for me, if there's a common theme that looks like a problem it's that my half-pot flop bets look really weak and give people odds to draw out on me. I never noticed that before. If you made it this far well done ! I know it's a lot to read/watch.
Comments welcome as always. I love getting them especially if you're stopping in to point out my mistakes.
The question posed about the LAG sitting on my left in the last post perhaps wasn't as clear as it should have been. Granted if I'm going to showdown with the guy then I just have to get some good hole cards. But my question really should have been the following :
"How do you win more than your fair share of pots against the LAG on your left ?"
At the levels of MTT poker I'm playing everyone has a pattern. They don't mix it up, deviate, misdirect and make brilliant plays. Everyone has a pattern and for every pattern there is a counter strategy that will allow you to gain chips from it.
For instance lets say the button always min raises if its folded to him to try and steal the blinds, but always folds to a reraise. The obvious counter strategy is to always reraise back regardless of your cards. A half decent player on the button might use this to set you up, doing it several times and then waking up with AA, but you will be surprised how many players just keep the same pattern over and over, then when they get AA they change the pattern and raise 4x instead, telling you this is the one time to avoid them.
I met a guy on the tables last night who would raise in early position and then check-fold any flop he missed. That meant I could call EVERY time he raised in EP regardless of my cards. He was an ATM and just kept dropping small pots to me. Eventually I made a stupid mistake that resulted in me giving them all back, but that was nothing to do with the previous "gifts".
When you've got a LAG acting behind you it makes it much harder to make these kind of plays that give you an advantage over everyone who's just playing their cards. If they are always calling your c-bets, or raising if you check the flop how do you earn chips off them when you don't have a hand ? I posted on RTR, and the responses varied from just have to wait for cards to become the LAG yourself. In a cash game just waiting for hand is fine I guess since you don’t have increasing blinds. But in the tourney we have to find places to earn chips we don’t deserve.
One response from a guy I respect because he goes deep in so many MTT's was that the only bet the LAG will respect is a check-raise. Make it consistent but don't over commit because if he did hit something you still want to be able to get away, more often than not though he's trying to buy the pot away from you and check-raising is the best way to get him to stop taking these pots down uncontested. Be careful though, when you've done this a few times to him it also makes him less likely to bet air on future hands since he will start to expect the check-raise again.
There's more to come but that's plenty to keep you going
And finally a little strategy…
There's one situation in an MTT that pretty much suffocates me into being unable to play a hand unless I get dealt really great hole cards. It's sitting at a table with a big stack loose aggro player on my left. I just can't make any moves when I get in this situation and I end up sitting there waiting for a decent hole cards to go with. (ie my QQ vs KJ in the last post)
If any of you kind people have got tips for what you do in this situation I'd be very grateful for some insight.
You've been warned, I don't owe you a dollar, just skip along to the next post.
Worst things first, my sister was admitted to hospital this morning with suspected Appendicitis. Not dangerous, but concerning all the same.
Medium beat, part good part bad. Work gave me a rise in my review, but with the new taxation scheme being introduced in this island "paradise" in April the effective raise is only 1.2%. I guess in the current economic cock-up I should be happy I get anything. They're also trying to switch me into another team but its just a crappy job that no one else wants to do so I have to justify all the reasons they need to keep me where I am before we meet again on Wednesday.
Poker beats (sorry you can skip to the end now).
Getting 15k chips in the first 6 minutes of a $3 rebuy is definitely a good beat, but it can only go downhill from a high like that. We got into the real part of the tourney and I missed flop after flop and a had a luckylooser on my left. I knew the game was travelling inevitably towards a hand where I would get allin vs this guy and just hope to not get unlucky. Fate dealt me QQ UTG+1, I raised 4x. He min reraised. Folded to me I go allin. He calls with KJo and flops a K and turns another.
Played two $5 27plyr SNGs. In the first found a guy from Rio who played any two every hand. Got allin with 8 left my TPTK vs his Q high flush draw. He hit. In the second I get QQ first hand. One limper I pop it to 5x, he calls. He bets out the ten high flop I reraise, he reraises I go allin. He calls with A-Ten and turns another ten.
Love this game but it tests me even more now I'm smoke free. 9 weeks today btw :o)
- Above average stack, ITM, and have good reads on everyone at the table in the $20 $25k GTD - Just above average stack after 2 hours of the Sunday warm up with good reads on most people at the table and two weak blinds on your left - Above average stack in the $5 $15k GTD
The worst that happen in that situation is your munter fuxxing ISP going down for the first time in like 2 years and then being forced to speak to a moron on the phone about it. When I explained that four other people on this service also didn't have internet that might have been a clue the problem was not actually "A problem with your router sir." My brother is online with a different company so when it became clear I wasn't getting back on anytime soon I drove to his house. Just in time to go allin with my two BB stack in the warm up with KQo and shove it into Aces 60 people short of the money. I got blinded out in the $20 game but still finished 91st for a $52 prize.
Perhaps asking for a HH to see what cards I missed was in hindsight not the best way to reduce the tilt I was feeling. I did get second in a $10 27plyr SNG after to recover some of the losses.
Talk about crappy luck.
Today I'm working out the best way of setting up a backup service that won't cost me unless I use it in case this ever happens again.
..I stopped doing my best to screw myself at the business end of these tournaments I might actually make some decent money in one of the bastards.
Unfortunately instead I get myself in a perfect position to run at the final table with around 50 left and start the poker equivalent of self-harming.
Good grief. I can only hope that this becomes a day which in time I can look back at and say "That was the turning point when I stopped screwing around"
Right now though I'm just the mouth-open dumb-look empty-feeling guy who threw away a shot at $8,900 by going from 3rd with 33 left to out in 33rd for $157.29 and I can't even blame the deck for this one.
"If" isn't good enough. The question should be "When". And the answer needs to be every time I play from this post on.
As an IT professional I'm sometimes on call for emergencies with my applications, some of which populate data early in the morning. One of these has a process that's run by a monkey in another of our other offices every morning at around 6am. Yesterday we implemented a new procedure to streamline this process and make it easier for everyone involved, hence my early start that I was moaning about. I am NOT a morning person. Anyway, here's what happened today.
6:21 AM : Ring-ring Buzz Ring-ring Buzz (mobile)
wake up! Me "Uh Hello ?" Monkey "Richard ?" Me "Yes" Monkey "Oh thank goodness" Me "Hi Monkey what's wrong ?" Monkey "There's a problem with that new thingy you gave me yesterday" Me "Uh Ok, what's not working" Monkey "It's stuck" Me "Umm, right, isn't it doing anything ? Do you have a blank screen or something ?" Monkey "No it's stuck I don't know what to do" Me "Ok, well is there any system error message on your screen or anything ?" pause Monkey "It's not doing anything, it just says 'Press any key to continue'" pause while that sinks in Me "Ok well have you tried pressing the space bar ?" Monkey "No should I do that ?" Me "Yes, try that please" pause Monkey "Aaaaaah" Me "Ok now ?" Monkey "Yes that's fixed it !" Me "K Bye" go back to sleep!
I still find it hard to believe people like this actually get a wage.
I propose a new system. Everyone has a basic salary set at the start of the month and then on every occassion you waste someone else time through acts of stupidity you get docked a minimum of an hours pay and it gets credited to the person whos time you wasted. Sound good ? Thought so.
*** Update ***
This has now been followed by a further conversation about how she will have to update her procedures to tell her that you need to press a key when the computer displays a message saying 'Press any key to continue'
I keep on keepin on at the $3 rebuy. I keep cashing. I keep not final tabling it.
Last night I went out 41st / 3thousandsomething. Playing a new more loose-aggressive strategy got me there. Playing loose-aggressive got me busted. I recorded the whole thing so if there's any interesting moments I'll post them later today.
Bloody work had me in at 6:45 this morning. That's a time of day you should only see on 3 occassions
At a poker table after an all night vegas session. Getting up for the red-eye to catch a connecting flight to vegas Final tabling the Sunday million.
At least I get to bail out of here at 2pm and play some different tourneys this afternoon.
I'm way too tired to play well tonight, I'm gonna read Phil G's Little Blue Book instead.
*Note to self Yay me ! I'm quitting good for the night before things get messy.
This is my 250th post. Sorry it's not about poker !
You might have seen on the news that the UK has just experienced one of the most severe storms in years for the past couple of days. You can read the BBC coverage here. Over here on my little island the seafront took a battering, totally destroying the top of the sea wall. The power of the sea is awesome.
Flooding at junction
If you look along the right hand side of the wall you can see where it remains what it used to look like, with the big capping stones on top
Huge granite capping stones
Always respect the power of the sea !
*I didn't take these photo's but I've been told it's ok to post them since they're being emailed to everyone and his dog in every office in the island. If you took these and would like credit or for me to remove them please drop me a line so I know. Thanks.
** NOTE If you're reading this in a feedreader it won't show the videos so wont make any sense. You'll have to visit my blog to see the whole thing. **
Lets see if this'll work out
K, so we're past the rebuy period now, I went from 2.8k chips to a little over 12k with 5 minutes left of the rebuy when my 44 flopped a set vs 4 allins.
First big hand in the second hour
K looks like that's working :) Hope u can see a video there otherwise this wont make much sense.
Here's the next interesting one. I might have played my KK badly by not raising PF, but my notes on the first raiser indicate he'll pay me off so I just called to try and hide the strength, that let in the guy with AJ behind me. But he was probably coming along even if I had reraised from the way he's been playing
Those hands were an hour ago. I took me that long to get the video embedded and working ! I've lost chips through blinds / missing a couple of flops. So now I get dealt 99 on the button, the two players to my right both limp and I overraise to 4,800 basically half me stack. We pick up the action on the flop.
Then I'm dealt a BB special, could I win more here or is it fine to protect my hand on the turn ?
I wonder how long the video bandwidth will last ? It's a distraction but good fun !
Raised presto UTG and took the blinds, raised Jc9c in the SB and took the BB. Moved tables.
Bit card dead, break time and getting short stacked Your current position is 313 out of 409
Surrounded by huge stacks, I need a hand
Ask and ye shall receive !
Running 3 hours and 35 minutes we're ITM with 378 places paid. It's all chicken feed from here until the FT, but at least it covers the cost of playing.
Limping 88 UTG is kinda stupid.
Took out a short stack with Ad2d vs 4c7c. Didn't catch it on vid !
Having a hard time seeing any opportunity for steals at my table, and now I'm getting low in chips I'm going to need a real hand again
Stole the blinds raising KQo in MP. fold JQo UTG I have just over 10BB's
The two guys to my right have decent stacks and are stealing pots and blinds relentlessly. I know coming over the top with nothing is the "right" play but I don't have the balls to do it !
I should have pushed A4o UTG, now I'm a cripple and the blinds have gone up it won't take long now
Scrap that, miracle cards save me just in the nick of time, I'm still short though.
Shortly after I raise with AQo and take the blinds.
Take the blinds with 84o raise from the SB, finally have enough chips to do things like that. That and everyone thinks I'm mega tight
Get caught trying to steal from the cutoff DOH !
Have to resort to getting chips any way I can, but make it to the break 124 out of 150.
BUSTo ! Good shove ?
At least I went out to a monster ! (and won $40!)
That was an interesting little experiment, the hands aren't that special because I was really just playing my cards due to the whole live-video-posting thing. I think next time I'll record the whole lot from start to finish and then I can edit it later and show hands of interest a little better. Was good to see it works though, better than reading a hand history isn't it ? If anyone else feels like trying it you can get a free trial version of camtasia to record the hands and if you need any pointers just give me a holler on the IM.
I've swear I've been under some kind of curse for the past 24 hours. Both Stars and FullTilt have been kicking me in the junk in the kind of sequence I haven't seen for a while. It all began when I went from first to worst in two hands during SWDP. I had the chip lead with 10 left when I got all my money in on a flop of J7A with JJT6 (going from memory not 100% on the hole cards) against A7Qx, the turn and river were both queens giving my opponent a better full house. That was a huge pot and would have put me in the lead for 12k+ chips when no one else was above 7k. I then had to fold my flopped two pair to a river bet that would have put me allin on what had become a flushed board.
I still managed to scrape along at the final table, despite being in the dank position the whole time. Unfortunately though I bubbled in 6th but I'm really enjoying omaha, I should really read that book again now that I've played some more of the game.
Texas holdem tourneys were just as bad, KK vs KQ allin on the turn on a JQ59 board and the river was a ten for the split, etc, etc, etc. Yeah I know I owe you a dollar for each story. Just hit me up next time I'm in vegas. I told everyone in the britblogger I was having a bad RNG day, so 23skidoo #### - Correction! - It was Riggstad - #### said he'd help me out when I reraised him preflop with KK, he pushed his AQ and made a straight. He tried to help me again later when I pushed presto (55) and he called with AQd. I flopped trips but that wasn't enough to beat the hex and he turned and rivered a diamond to send me home ! Presto is gold for Fuel, not me.
I should quit when it gets to the point where I know I'm getting my money ahead but am waiting for the suckout to come. Instead I played 3 or 4 more small buyin SNGs and just scraped a cash in one of them. I did call it a day eventually, but it was long after I should have.
As this post has been all bad beats and not very helpful for you or me here's some other posters you should be reading.
Play the $3rebuy again. outlast 3,463 donkeys during 6 1/2 hours. laptop locks up, uses all my timeback on return hand from break.
Get AA in the BB, try to think quick because my timebank is gone. Raise 2 limpers. one caller. Flop QQ7. Make a good play to work out if he has a Q as cheaply as I think I can, am rushed again with the timebank. He tells me he does have a Q.
DONKEY here shoves his chips in anyway. goes home 23rd with a crappy $91.67
Details and maybe even the video nasty tomorrow if you're good.
Edit: here's the video now, laugh at me. Its good that this makes me feel as bad as it does.
Edit 2: k blogger thinks I'm an idiot too, so the vid doesn't work. I'll try and sort it tomorrow.
I will win this thing. But for now I am going to sleep
My nightly tourney for the last couple of days has been the Pokerstars $3+R $25k gtd, on Wednesday night I played quite well and whilst round at J's place managed to finish 54th/3277 for $67.68 The bust came from running QQ into AK, the best thing about that was knowing before I went allin that I was running QQ into AK. Yep, for the first time in far too long the TV was off, I was thinking about every hand not just those I was playing and I had some successful reads which were a big factor in going close to a real score. If that hand holds then who knows.
Last night I played it again and this time I went busto about 3 hours in when I couldn't fold AA. I'm slightly annoyed at this hand, I think I should be able to find a fold. Although I the time I put him on KQ I realised afterward that most of players in this game are not going to reraise KQ on that flop, they would call because they aren't sure if they're trapping or behind and are really hoping to improve to a str8. There would still be enough play in my stack to fold here and move on I think. At least I followed the read, even if I was wrong and overplayed them ! Tonight I'm going to play it again and do better.
Thanks Bam-Bam for taking the time to comment ! Proving that this blog has even fewer readers than I thought, or that this hand isn't interesting at all !
I did post it on RTR & 2+2 to see what other thoughts I might pick up from various people. It's a bit of a mixed bag tbh. Everyone agrees I should not get into this short stack situation in the first place, pushing either UTG or UTG+1, but I did that with AQ and lost to a shorter stack which is my excuse for being here now. So now that I'm here what's the best thing to do ?
I am getting 4.72-1 pot odds so I need a 17.5% or better expectation vs his range to make the call good on its own.
On the next hand I'll be getting 2-1 if it's just me vs the BB but I will win half as many chips, and need 3 players to bust out yet. And what are the chances it'll be just me vs the BB ?
Even if I was to win the SB hand I would still have an M of less than 1 and will likely need to win at least one more hand to get a seat. If I win the 2-7 hand here then I have a reasonable chance of just folding to a seat because I'll be up near an average stack.
Hand ranges - I think that a fairly conservative range for gerens is [88+,AQs+,AQo+] which would make this a +EV call of with me having a 20% chance vs that range.
If I make it just a little tighter, by removing the AQ hands [88+, AKs, AKo] then it becomes a marginally -EV call, with me only having a 17% chance against the range.
Most people on the forum replies I got suggest that range is probably too tight, and I should expand it to include [88+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo] that seems a little wishful thinking if you ask me, but on this range 7-2 has a 23% chance, making it another +EV call.
So all that leads me to believe calling is the right move, even though I am cursing my luck to get such a crappy hand on my BB.
I did wonder if the expected value of prizes can effect this and my simple brain has come to the following conclusion (which I don't know if the logic for which is correct)
If I make two assumptions, That calling winning the BB hand will get me a ticket Folding means needing to win 2 hands to get a ticket Can that change the EV discussed above ?
If I'm 20% to win the BB hand then my cashEV is 215*.20 right ? = $43
So how do I work out the cEV for folding and going allin on the SB and button ? The best case scenario for the SB+button move is that it will be my hand random vs BB's random hand only on both occassions, which is a 50/50 followed by another 50/50. That's .5 * .5 = 25% and 25% of 215 = $53.75 but that is a best case scenario. It is much more likely that I'll be a dog running against another player other than the BB. If I'd actually end up a 60/40 dog in these allins my expectation is 16%, much worse off.
Conclusion. Even though we're in the crap and sacrificing a goat to try and get lucky it still looks to me like calling with 2-7 in the BB is a better proposition than folding and hoping to win the next 2 hands. But we should never normally get this short in the BB we should be allin UTG before the blind comes through.
The forum discussion went through the hand range above and came to the conclusion it's a +EV call, but still the majority of people decided they would rather fold and hope the SB is luckier. I don't really understand that. As a big stack in a tournament I can see why you would pass up small +EV edges but when it is crunch time like this I think you have to go with any edge no matter how small.
If you see any glaring errors in this thought process please feel free to let me know ! I'm here to learn.
Here's the rest of the hand
TanOrpheus: calls 6280 and is all-in *** FLOP *** [5d Ks 6d] *** TURN *** [5d Ks 6d] [4s] *** RIVER *** [5d Ks 6d 4s] [7h] *** SHOW DOWN *** TanOrpheus: shows [2d 7s] (a pair of Sevens) 11.8 % gerens: shows [Ad Ac] (a pair of Aces) 88.2 % gerens collected 47960 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot 47960 | Rake 0 Board [5d Ks 6d 4s 7h] Seat 1: Klaversma folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 2: kooshla (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 3: first-dane (small blind) folded before Flop Seat 4: TanOrpheus (big blind) showed [2d 7s] and lost with a pair of Sevens Seat 5: Ditalino folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 6: rojotoronja folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 7: gerens showed [Ad Ac] and won (47960) with a pair of Aces Seat 8: leffan69 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 9: Nase66 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
For once, I'm going to post a hand here that might be interesting and hope for some comments. Hopefully it'll make me a slightly better player.
The set up : $3 rebuy turbo sat to the sunday warm up. We've just broke the money bubble but not the seat bubble. 357 entrants, 18 left. 13 players get seats, the rest $12. I invested $9 by rebuying at the start and adding on. The blinds rocket up in these and in less than 1 minute will be 10k/20k/1k, its push/fold poker all the way.
The hand :
Table '79265210 21' 9-max Seat #2 is the button Seat 1: Klaversma (74795 in chips) Seat 2: kooshla (35118 in chips) Seat 3: first-dane (100029 in chips) Seat 4: TanOrpheus (18880 in chips) Seat 5: Ditalino (71130 in chips) Seat 6: rojotoronja (64684 in chips) Seat 7: gerens (67246 in chips) Seat 8: leffan69 (83700 in chips) Seat 9: Nase66 (78788 in chips) All post the ante of 600 first-dane: posts small blind 6000 TanOrpheus: posts big blind 12000
Ok, so "yay, cool" it's the Hammer! but we can be serious for a minute and ignore that. Is this a mandatory call whatever cards I have ? I think it is. I'll be allin on my SB next hand anyway so I should call here and hope to get lucky and win a slightly bigger pot here than hope to get lucky and win a smaller pot on the next hand right ? So many of my chips are out there already I'm basically allin here anyway aren't I. It's ok you can just comment "standard" if its that simple. Thanks for your time.
I managed to convince some people that I can play PLO this weekend, thanks to a second place finish in my first SWDP attempt. This is all the more remarkable because my brain was well on the way to a white wine marinade by the time we hit the first break. My friends were round for our now regular Saturday night dinner and ActionRich was cooking, because I was too tired and grumpy to do it myself. Twister was babysitting the game for me when I needed to do refills.
At some stage in the game with 2 tables left I think I had twice as many chips than anyone else left in, when we reached the FT I still had the lead. That all changed when my trip tens ran into zeems trip kings, the money went in on the flop and I missed the backdoor flush draw to double him up. I was still healthy but no longer able to bet with abandon. Zeem, StB and I were the final three. StB took out Zeem and we were headsup with StB having around a 40k - 15k lead over me.
I figured at this point that aggression and was my best hope. I raised any pair, and most of the paint I was dealt. StB didn't like my raises and I got back to level, maybe even ahead a little. Then the luck turned in his favour and he rebuilt the lead over me so that going into the final hand he had a 47k - 10k lead. Dr Pauly was recording the details ;