Here's some example hands from yet another attempt at the $3 rebuy last night.
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Connecting with the flop
In this first hand I'm in the big blind with 5d 6d and kernark raises 4x from middle position. I have a read on kernark, he only raises 4x with broadway hands and he overplays his hands post-flop. I know my call out of position is -EV in a standard situation, but against this guy I've got a good chance of reading his hand and winning some chips, and if I connect with the flop I could win even more.
So I kind of connected with the flop, my hand isn't great but if my read is right that he's got broadway that means he hasn't hit unless he already had an overpair. I check to keep the pot small and see what more information he wants to give me. His bet of 1200 into the 1700 pot is a standard c-bet. I'm not too scared of another club hitting, but if one comes I'll reassess the betting on the turn.
The 6h on the turn is a perfect card for me, it hasn't helped him and it's made my hand much stronger. I make a weak half-pot bet which I think looks like I'm semi-bluffing the flush draw, and he's not going to put me on 89 for a made gutshot straight. He reraises allin with AK and I win a nice pot.
The turn card does make my hand much easier to play, but if I'm following my reads I should be able to make the same commitment without needing to pair the 6.
This second hand happened in the 3rd hour of the tournament I think, I'm at a different table but I've seen a lot happen and I've got reasonable reads on most of the opposition. I'm dealt Kh 10h UTG+1, this is generally a standard fold but because we've got deep stacks and good reads it's an opportunity to raise. If I end up in a hand against a player I have a strong read on my hole cards won't matter.
I get super lucky and flop the second nut flush, but eunpark is a worry, he's loved getting his chips in the middle so far. I make a weak flop bet just to see how he reacts. Min-reraise. I've seen this so often lately it's ridiculous, players min betting or min reraising their flush draws, maybe he's got the nut flush though, so I small reraise again thinking he'll push if he has it. He just calls. The turn is a non heart 8 so I bet half the pot without really thinking about my bet at all (the mistake here is Ive stopped thinking about his cards all together all I'm thinking is "I have the flush ! I have the flush !" - idiot). He calls trying to hit one of the 7 remaining hearts in the deck but the river is a non-heart 5. Now I make another mistake, I completely forget that he missed his outs and don’t think to myself "is he calling my bet". In hindsight a much better play on the river is to check, allowing him a chance to bluff at the nice juicy pot we've built. Instead I shove and he folds.
AK "lucky ?" read
2 hands here, I've only seen popo play one hand against a short stack which sucked out on him. He took it very well so I made an initial assessment in the notes that he was good and non-tilty. Then I see him limp AJo UTG and call a shove with it, so I lose any respect for him. The very next hand I get Ad Kd and make a fairly standard raise. He calls preflop and the flop comes JJ4 with two diamonds. To my surprise he shoves his 19k stack into a 4k pot. Very occasionally this a guy pretending he's on tilt when he's actually got the jack. Very rarely. More often it's genuine tilt. I take a little time, and call thinking at least if it isn't the bluff-on-tilt I think it is I have 2 overs and outs to the flush.
AA gets cream crackered
With two allins before me I'm already saying to myself "I've got a bad feeling about this one" obv I have to make the call but QQ flops a set to double up. Thanks to the earlier chips I picked up I can take the beat and keep going, without tilting.
Confirmation of an easy read
Now that sccby has a nice big stack of chips in front of him my attention turns to confirming my read on him. In this hand he reraises PF from the BB and bets out on the flop. It's obvious he had good starting cards and when my read said he only bet out on flops when he was ahead it was obvious he was stacking zandroc.
TT played poorly
I think I played this hand badly on the flop, turn and river.
I reraise a limper with TT preflop which is fine. Then on a 9 high two heart flop its checked to me and I only bet half the pot, it should be more. He calls. An A comes on the turn and I fire another bullet but it's still only a half pot bet which doesn’t tell me a lot when its called. On the river if he had shoved I'd have been priced in to calling so why shouldn't I put him allin anyway. I think I should have even though I was smelling a rat and thought at the time he had a really strong hand.
A chance to exploit the read
Sccby makes his standard raise UTG. I have 4h 6h. Fold ? No way. With his telegraphed post-flop play this is an easy hand to play. I call and he checks the K high flop. It doesn’t matter that I made bottom pair, I know he missed so betting just over half the pot makes the chips mine.
Failure to use the read and marginal play
I raise 2.5xBB with 33 from MP1, probably a mistake but I have reads on nearly everyone at the table now and think I can get away easily or make moves post flop enough to get away with it. I was probably getting a bit overconfident at this point. Sccby calls my raise in the SB. Perfect, at least I'll know whether he hit the flop. Qd Jd 3c gives me a set and he checks to me. Now I should be using my read to try and get something out of him but I don’t think and bet to stop the draw, knowing full well he's folding anyway.
Ignoring the read completely
Sccby makes his standard raise UTG+1 again, this time I have A8o. Normally an easy fold but again I'm thinking with the read it's easy for me to play and know where I am on the flop. The flop is Kd 7h Ah. But then Sccby bets out first ! Alarm bells should be ringing, I should be looking at the notes again, I should KNOW he has me beat. Instead I fall in love with my paired Ace crappy kicker and fairly quickly shove my chips in the middle. Of course he calls with A-10 and my tournament is over.
I shake my head in disbelief that I didn't even think about the reads before and that he TOLD me I was beat on that flop. A totally stupid move, not because of the cards I had but because of my read.
Reviewing those hands was really good for me, if there's a common theme that looks like a problem it's that my half-pot flop bets look really weak and give people odds to draw out on me. I never noticed that before. If you made it this far well done ! I know it's a lot to read/watch.
Comments welcome as always. I love getting them especially if you're stopping in to point out my mistakes.